Write the assumptions
List what must be true about the customer, problem, price, channel and delivery. Rank assumptions by how dangerous they would be if wrong.
- Name the customer precisely
- State expected buying behavior
- Identify the riskiest belief
Collect behavioral evidence
Interviews help, but real actions are stronger. Test signups, appointments, deposits, pilots or other appropriate commitments without misleading people.
- Ask about past behavior
- Avoid leading questions
- Measure action, not compliments
Decide what the evidence means
Set success and failure criteria before the test. Use the result to continue, revise the offer, change the customer or stop.
- Record results
- Investigate surprises
- Do not hide negative evidence